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When good players make a hand on the flop they often bet to “protect” their
hand from drawing players. Since a draw needs a small bet relative to the pot
to continue profitably, players should fold most often with draws when against
one opponent. Does this mean that in a room full of good players that basic
flush or straight draws are dead? Not exactly.
First of all the proper odds to continue with a draw on the flop is 1 to 3 – or
about 1/3 the pot. If the turn card is no help, the odds of catching your out on
the river is 1 in 5, making your correct calling price a fifth of the pot. This
doesn’t include the implied odds that your opponent might call a decent sized
river bet when your draw completes – though you can count on most good
players folding (especially in full ring). Since most players bet about 2/3 of the
pot on the flop and 1/2 the pot on the turn with made hands – calling with
basic draws is unprofitable in the long run.
A good while back, players came up with the idea of a blocking bet. When a
good player is likely to be on a top pair hand, a player who is out of position
with a simple draw can attempt to “set his or her own price” and bet 1/3 to 1/2
the pot on the flop, and 1/5 to 1/4 on the turn. This makes the top pair holder
uncomfortable. If our opponent raises (the proper amount to shake us off our
draw that is – not a min-raise) now they are playing a large pot with only a
pair. This puts our opponent in an odd spot. Odd spots are where mistakes
come from and this could work toward our advantage. This also may
encourage weaker draws and hands to call as well.
The problem with small leading bets is that it really turns your hole cards right
side up. In other words, our opponents can easily figure out our hand. An
alternative to this is to just come out firing. Leading with a 2/3 pot bet on the
flop will add folding equity if your opponent missed the flop – which he or she
often will. This also disguises your hand – deceiving the bad guy into thinking
maybe you hit a pair, two pair, or even a set. This also adds chips to the pot
in the off chance that you hit. The cool thing about this bluff is that if you do hit
your draw – you can bet in a way on the turn that makes you look tentative
which further disguises your hand and may lead to a decent payoff. Players
may even raise you here bluffing the made draw – which YOU have! If you
miss however you have to be ready to give up on the hand.
Remember to mix up your game a bit and use what you might think be the
best option for your situation. Tight players will often fold when they don’t hit
the flop (2/3 of the time). Loose players seldom fold anything so no sense
trying to bluff them. Ignore that common truth and you will quickly go broke.
Passive players will not raise even a tiny blocking bet. Good players will be
on to you and your best option might be to check/fold.
Playing draws in position is another story. If a player in front of you c-bets, it is
up to you to figure out if he or she is the type to give up on the turn. Most tight,
aggressive, ABC poker players will fold a top pair hand, or any c-bet to a
whiff, when you raise them. If you decide to raise, raise big – about the size of
the pot. I wouldn’t do this all the time and I certainly wouldn’t do this without a
read. Many players in 6-max will “re-raise all in” to a flop raise. Though many
players in full ring games will only continue here with a set or better. If you get
called you may get a chance to check behind on the turn, and end up with a
free river card – which is a great thing to get when on a draw. Even out of
position though the check raise is a very strong play. You are gaining lots of
fold equity but also risking more chips. Of course if you get a caller and hit
your draw then you will likely win a huge pot. Watch out for paired boards
though. Flopped sets turn into full houses about a third of the time.
Your best bet is to bring all of these moves to the table with you and apply
them as correctly as you can. Make your decisions based on your opponents’
pre-flop and post-flop tendencies (which may be entirely opposite), your table
image, position, and notes from past action. Poker is not played in a vacuum
and there is no Holy Grail. Allow yourself the occasional “move” here and
there when the application looks just right. There is no need to get fancy every
hand. From there you will naturally build skills to where you will start “feeling”
which move may be right – not by guessing or hunches, that is, but through
experience.
McStackn
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